DR. GRIEVE CHELWA DISSECTS FOUR YEARS OF UPND ECONOMIC POLICY: PAIN WITHOUT PROGRESS
BY BRIAN MATAMBO – SANDTON, SOUTH AFRICA
On a night of sharp economic diagnosis and uncompromising truth-telling, Dr. Grieve Chelwa, one of Zambia’s most respected political economists, appeared on EMV Tonight with Ambassador Emmanuel Mwamba to deliver a blistering review of the UPND’s first four years in power. His verdict was unflinching: this has been “a period of great disappointment” and “a missed opportunity” for the people of Zambia.
The core of Chelwa’s critique lay in the debt restructuring process, the flagship promise on which President Hakainde Hichilema built his economic credibility. Drawing directly from Ministry of Finance figures, Chelwa stripped away the official narrative of victory. “We only succeeded in restructuring half of the debt we set out to,” he said. “About four to five billion dollars out of eleven billion. Four years down the line, that is not a success.”
Even after this partial restructuring, he warned, Zambia’s debt service profile remains perilously high: $1.2 billion in 2026, $1.1 billion in 2027, $900 million in 2028, levels almost identical to those that triggered the 2020 default. “These numbers are dangerously high,” Chelwa cautioned. “This cannot be referred to as a successful debt restructure.”
IMF AUSTERITY: PAIN FOR NOTHING
Chelwa was equally unsparing about the IMF program that has defined Zambia’s economic policy since 2022. The fiscal consolidation demanded by the Fund, government spending cut from 32% to roughly 25% of GDP, has, he argued, drained life from the economy.
“Walk around Lusaka today and you will hear people saying there is no cash in the economy,” he observed. “That is the direct result of government slowing down expenditure.” In real terms, it has meant reduced investment in infrastructure, health, and education, while ordinary citizens endure record-high fuel, transport, and food costs.
MINING POLICY: GIFTS TO MULTINATIONALS
Turning to mining policy, Chelwa accused the administration of handing foreign mining houses “a gift” by making mineral royalty tax deductible and lowering effective rates. The results, he said, are catastrophic for public revenue: mining corporate tax receipts fell from K12.2 billion in 2022 to K5 billion in 2023, while mineral royalty revenues dropped from K10.4 billion to K7.7 billion.
The promised surge in production to three million metric tonnes of copper by 2030 is, he argued, a distant mirage. “We are far away from that target,” Chelwa said.
THE GROWTH FIGURES DO NOT MATCH THE STREETS
Perhaps most provocatively, Chelwa challenged the credibility of Zambia’s recent GDP growth rates. If the official growth is real, he asked, why has it not translated into better wages, lower unemployment, or a reduced cost of living?
He noted that GDP has not been rebased since 2010, likely overestimating the true performance by failing to fully capture the informal sector, which has been hammered by high fuel costs and power cuts. “If there is growth, it is not showing on the ground,” he concluded.
PUBLIC REACTION: A STRIKING RESONANCE
The program’s live audience responded with an intensity rarely seen in economic discussions. “Nobody can score this debt service as a success. Thank you Doc,” wrote viewer Tatulini Musukuma. Another participant, Christopher Ngoma, lamented, “The problem of us Zambians is that we do not take ownership.”
Several callers pointed out that Chelwa had predicted this outcome as far back as 2021, warning that the IMF route would deliver “pain for nothing.”
A VOICE FROM THE DIASPORA: THIS GROWTH IS A LIE
One of the most forceful interventions came from Anonymous from the land of AI
“I am calling from a place where load-shedding is so heavy right now we have only five hours of power in a day. Barbershops are closed most of the time. Butcheries have shut down permanently. Salons are barely operating. And this is what I do not understand, how is the UPND government recording growth in the economy without production? It does not make sense at all. This is a government that thrives on propaganda and lies. When the President licks his lips, you know he is about to tell another one. Growth that does not translate to the ground is not growth.”
Chelwa did not shy away from agreeing with such sentiments. His call for a reset, built on reclaiming control of the mining sector, rebalancing fiscal policy towards investment, and centering development on Zambia’s own resources, found strong echoes among Zambians at home and abroad.
A SCHOLAR’S FINAL WORD
In closing, Chelwa reminded the audience that the economy exists to serve people, especially the most vulnerable. “Reality is not optional,” he said. “Our people are struggling, they are crying, and their leaders are not hearing them.”
For now, the government appears unmoved. But the depth of data, clarity of reasoning, and moral weight behind Chelwa’s analysis may prove harder to ignore as the next election cycle approaches.